The Expansion of Irrigated Agriculture in Brazil and Potential Regional Limitations

Abstract

Regional expansion of irrigated agriculture may minimize risks for the farmer and strengthen food security for future generations. However, at the same time, it has a damaging effect on water availability and may worsen episodes of micro regional water scarcity. In this paper, we analyze scenarios of irrigation expansion in the Brazilian agriculture, using a computable general equilibrium model (the TERM-BR model) to assess the impacts on water demand for 2025. Simulations were carried out for areas deemed potentially suitable for irrigation based on National Water Resources Plan (PNRH) and Ministry of National Integration report (MI). We increase the regional detail to focus on some of the Brazilian Northeastern States, in order to assess the balance between regional water supply (as determined by the Climatic Water Balance) and demand. The comparative results of the Climatic Water Balance and the TERM-BR model for the region point to potential water availability problems in specific states, such as Alagoas and Pernambuco.