Risk stratification for in-hospital mortality in spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage: A Classification and Regression Tree Analysis

Abstract

Background: Risk stratification for mortality in intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) helps guide care, but existing clinical prediction rules are too cumbersome for clinical practice because of their complexity. Aim: To develop a simple decision tree model of in-hospital mortality risk stratification for ICH patients. Methods: We collected information on spontaneous ICH patients hospitalized in a teaching hospital in Japan from August, 1998 to December, 2001 (n = 374). All variables were abstracted from data available at the time of initial evaluation. A prediction rule for in-hospital mortality was developed by the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) methodology. The accuracy of the model was evaluated using the area under receiver-operator characteristic curve. Results: Overall in-hospital mortality rate was 20.2%. The CART methodology identified four groups for mortality risk, varying from low (2.1%) to high (58.9%). Level of consciousness (coma) was the best single predictor for mortality, followed by high ICH volume (cut-off 10.4 ml), and then age (cut-off 75 years). The accuracy of our CART model (0.86) exceeded that of a multivariate logistic regression model (0.81). Discussion: ICH patients can easily be stratified for mortality risk, based on three predictors available on admission. This simple decision tree model provides clinicians with a reliable and practical tool. © 2006 Oxford University Press.