How to Calculate Traffic Breakdown Probability?

Abstract

Summary. We would like to calculate the traffic breakdown probability distribu- tion which is related to a first-order phase transition from free flow to congested flow. Intuitively we introduce the notion of breakdown probability density as a function of time to reach some significant large car cluster size (first passage time problem). The calculations are based on an initial–boundary–value Fokker–Planck equation including balance condition of the probability flux