Effect of CITES Appendix I listing on illegal pangolin trade as gauged from seizure reports in Indonesia

Abstract

Pangolins, one of the most heavily trafficked animals, have become the poster child for the illegal wildlife trade. Pangolins are protected throughout their range and their international trade has been regulated through the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Assessing the effectiveness of trade regulations, such as the listing of all pangolins on CITES Appendix I in 2016 precluding all international trade, can be done by analysis of seizure reports. I report 81 large seizures within Indonesia over the last 12 years, the equivalent of 18,024 pangolins representing a value of USD9.42 million. In Indonesia, the number of seizures remained stable at around seven a year. There was a significant decrease in the number of seized pangolin equivalents, from 3000 to 4000 in 2011 and 2012 to 400 to 600 in 2021 and 2022. A break point analysis showed that any changes in this trend did not coincide with changes in international trade regulations. Seizures were made in 17/22 provinces where pangolins occur. At the provincial level seizures or the number of confiscated pangolins was not linked to minimum wage, area, human population, or international connectiveness. Despite the international nature of the pangolin trade, where reported, suspects that were arrested were Indonesian nationals. Over time the proportion of seizures comprising solely of scales has increased from ~ 5 to 100%. These observations of seizures of large amounts of pangolin scales, in the absence of bodies, carcasses, or meat, suggest there is a hidden trade in these parts, in Indonesia and/or elsewhere. There is no clear support that the CITES Appendix I listing had a direct effect on the pangolin trade within Indonesia.