Prediction of central Arizona convection. Part II: further examination of the Eta model forecasts

Abstract

At times the model fails to capture the rapid increase in low- and mid-level moisture that is observed in the hours prior to the onset of convection. Subsequent convection is not predicted by the Eta model. In one event the model very accurately predicts the evolution of the air mass over Phoenix during the period just prior to the outbreak of severe convection. However, no convection is predicted by the model. The model seems unable to generate convection over the high terrain or lower deserts of central Arizona regardless of whether the air mass is simulated corrently. A low-level jet feature observed over southwest Arizona during SWAMP is not correctly simulated by the Eta model. The model produces a very strong sea-breeze circulation from the Gulf of California into western Arizona in each simulation. -from Authors