Use of technology foresight in S&T policy making: A Korean experience

Abstract

In 2006, Korea stands at an important watershed moment in the development of its technological capabilities. Half way into the term of President Roh Moo Hyun who has pledged at various occasions to bolster the countrys scientific recognition on the world stage, Korea is developing into a knowledge-driven society, in which traditional factors of production such as capital and labor are progressively superseded by new dimensions such as patents, research and development (RandD) and availability of knowledge workers.2 It was estimated by the OECD in 1996 that over 50 percent of GDP in the major OECD economies had become knowledge-based (OECD 1996:9). And as much as 70 to 80 percent of economic growth is now said to be due to new and better knowledge (Joint Research Centre of the European Commission 2000:24). These insights frame the current debate within Korea about the impending innovation challenge and the proper strategies required to carve out a profitable niche in the sandwich position between high-tech Japan and low-tech China. The foremost challenge in technology policy making has always been in the selection of the "right" projects, i.e. those that advance structural reforms, contribute to a more dynamic private sector, anticipate future societal needs and are inline with broader national objectives. To this end, technology foresight (TF) studies have been conducted in many countries across the world with the aim of identifying areas of future research and catalyze present-day discussion and decision-making. Korea for its part has conducted three TF studies, in the years of 1994, 1999 and 2005. Against this backdrop, the paper attempts to shed light on the conceptual and factual links between the three Korean TF studies and the up-take of study results in actual policy making. The major result is that TF appears to have visibly supported the Korean government in making the transition from an inward-looking model of technology import to a growth-prone "grand plan" which includes the development and successful commercialization of home-grown technologies.3 For the purpose of this paper our analysis is focused on direct policy consequences, i.e. those that became manifest in formal programs or plans. However, even in their absence, it is highly likely that policies were influenced in indirect ways by policy makers and practitioners gaining new knowledge and perspectives after reading the final foresight reports.4 The remainder is structured as follows. The next section is devoted to the emergence of TF studies around the world, and the underlying contextual factors. Part three zooms in on the innovation challenge faced by Korea in its efforts to catch up with the worlds leading countries and to stay ahead of emerging competitors, known as BRICs.5 The fourth part elaborates on the history of TF in Korea, focusing on the processes and outcomes of the three Delphi studies conducted since 1993. Section five addresses the use of foresight outcomes in government policy making, and the paper concludes with a discussion of the main results. © Physica-Verlag Heidelberg 2007.