The effects of dominant driving forces on summer precipitation during different periods in Beijing

Abstract

Wavelet analysis methods (CWT, XWT, WTC) were employed to evaluate the impact of dominant climatic driving factors on summer precipitation in the Beijing area based on monthly precipitation data of Beijing ranging from 1880 to 2014. The two climatic driving factors, i.e., the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Northern Limit of Western Pacific Subtropical High (NWPSH) were considered in particular. The relationships between summer precipitation and EASM/NWPSH were also examined. The results revealed similar periods in low-frequency oscillation (76-95 years) and mid-range frequency oscillation (32-60 years) for the summer precipitation in the Beijing area and EASM/NWPSH. The summer precipitation correlated positively with the NWPSH and EASM, especially for periods of 43 years and 33 years, respectively. This indicates that summer precipitation during 1880-1960 and during the years after 1960 was significantly affected by NWPSH and EASM, respectively. Based on the periodic change of 33 years for both summer precipitation and EASM, heavy precipitation can be expected to occur again in Beijing at approximately 2026. Understanding the relationships between summer precipitation and climatic factors is of significant importance for precipitation predictions and water resource variations in the Beijing area.