Catastrophe models and policy processes: Managing flood risk in the Hungarian Tisza river basin – an introduction

Abstract

In this chapter we provide an introduction to this section of six chapters, which examine how catastrophe models can contribute insights to multi-stakeholder policy processes by focusing on flood risk management in the Hungarian reach of the Upper Tisza river. The flood problem in this vulnerable region remains today acute mainly because of increasing flood risk due primarily to land use and perhaps also to climate change, as well as to a management regime in flux. A recent popular movement to change the management regime from the traditional river defense paradigm (RDP) to a more environmentally oriented working landscape paradigm (WLP) has been stalled. This stalled regime shift highlights the critical importance of reaching consensus, not only on flood measures that promote the sustainable development of the region, but also on the distribution of the losses from floods. The papers in this section focus on the latter by demonstrating how catastrophe models can aid a participatory process aimed to design a flood insurance and public compensation system. In addition, the papers address flood risk in the region, and how it will be impacted by climate change, as well as the vulnerability of the Tisza basin residents.