Introduction: Trump and unpredictability in international relations

Abstract

This article introduces the special issue on Trump and unpredictability in international relations. It analyses each of the contributions to the special issue in turn, as they appear in the running order, while also elaborating on the intellectual and political context for the special issue as a whole. Paralleling the special issue, this introduction begins by setting out the problem of understanding the very notion of unpredictability itself as a general concept; turns to unpacking that theoretical complexity in more empirical terms by questioning how we can understand unpredictability in relation to Trump’s foreign policy; explores the contestation of that understanding by analysing alternative explanations for unpredictability and whether this constitutes doctrine; then delves more deeply into the specific notion of Madman theory, which comprises a critical and highly prominent sub-section of the unpredictability debate; and culminates in a more expansive focus on the impact of unpredictability as Trump’s foreign policy approach, specifically in relation to China.