Geo-clusters and socio-demographic profiles at village-level associated with COVID-19 incidence in the metropolitan city of Jakarta: An ecological study

Abstract

The Special Capital Region of Jakarta is the epicentre of the transmission of COVID-19 in Indonesia. However, much remains unknown about the spatial and temporal patterns of COVID-19 incidence and related socio-demographic factors explaining the variations of COVID-19 incidence at local level. COVID-19 cases at the village level of Jakarta from March 2020 to June 2021 were analyzed from the local public COVID-19 dashboard. Global and local spatial clustering of COVID-19 incidence was examined using the Moran's I and local Moran analysis. Socio-demographic profiles of identified hotspots were elaborated. The association between village characteristics and COVID-19 incidence was evaluated. The COVID-19 incidence was significantly clustered based on the geographical village level (Moran's I = 0.174; p =.002). Seventeen COVID-19 high-risk clusters were found and dynamically shifted over the study period. The proportion of people aged 20–49 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.016; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.012–1.019), proportion of elderly (≥50 years) (IRR = 1.045; 95% CI = 1.041–1.050), number of households (IRR = 1.196; 95% CI = 1.193–1.200), access to metered water for washing, and the main occupation of the residents were village level socio-demographic factors associated with the risk of COVID-19. Targeted public health responses such as restriction, improved testing and contact tracing, and improved access to health services for those vulnerable populations are essential in areas with high-risk COVID-19.