Is it now possible to use advanced dispersion modelling for emergency response? The example of a CBRN-E exercise in Paris

Abstract

It is now generally admitted by the first responders and decision-makers that atmospheric dispersion modelling and health impact assessment can be of help in an emergency implying the release of Chemical, Biological, Radiological or Nuclear species, possibly preceded by an Explosion (CBRN-E). Such an event may be of accidental or malevolent origin and is likely to occur in a built industrial, harbour or urban environment. Thus, a modelling and decision-support tool should be able to deal with several types of threats and scenarios and give the possibility to run flow and dispersion models adapted to complex environments. Moreover, such a tool should produce in a limited amount of time (maximum of 15 min) 2D/3D simulation results directly useable by the civilian security to protect the population. These are precisely the specifications of CERES® CBRN-E software which is developed at CEA with the aim to transfer R&D advances to operational applications. This paper first comments on the advantages of advanced dispersion models. It presents the main features of CERES® and its use in connection with the civilian security by way of the “Toxic 2014” exercise done in “La Defense” district near Paris. Finally, the paper condenses the major lessons learnt from this exercise regarding the future development of CERES® as a decision-support tool.