Mapping county-level vulnerability to the energy transition in US fossil fuel communities

Abstract

The energy transition toward lower-carbon energy sources will inevitably result in socioeconomic impacts on certain communities, particularly those that have historically produced fossil fuel resources and electricity generation using fossil fuels. Such communities stand to lose jobs, tax revenues, and support for public services. Which communities are most likely to be affected, which are more susceptible to being harmed, and how to target adaptive capacity programs—such as economic development and workforce training—accordingly are pressing scholarly and policy questions. In this study, we apply a vulnerability framework to calculate, rank, and map exposure and sensitivity scores for fossil fuel producing regions in the US. We find that, while counties in most regions of the United States will be affected by the transition away from fossil fuels, counties in Appalachia, Texas and the Gulf Coast region, and the Intermountain West are likely to experience the most significant impacts, and some regions experience overlapping and significant incidence of vulnerability. These results can be used to target future adaptive capacity programs.