Need for False Spring Research in the Northern Great Plains, USA

Abstract

Late spring frosts (false springs) may increase in northern latitudes of the USA. Researchers need to determine how false springs will affect plants and wildlife. Special attention is required in vulnerable areas such as the northern Great Plains. Global climate change is typically characterized by warming average temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events. An understudied component of climate change is the occurrence of false springs, where warm temperatures in early spring prematurely release plants from dormancy, only to be harmed by a late spring frost event. Only limited research has investigated the nature, extent, and impacts of false springs, despite their potential for extreme environmental and economic consequences. More resources should be devoted to false spring research because they are predicted to increase in several regions, especially the northern Great Plains. We review the existing literature on false springs and identify knowledge gaps in both cropland and natural systems. Further, we propose avenues of research, focusing on ecosystems of the northern Great Plains. This research will be crucial in creating strategies that allow land managers to adapt to changing conditions caused by more frequent false springs.