Vulnerability assessment to climate variability and climate change in Tijuana, Mexico

Abstract

This paper presents research results of a recent project creating an operational approach to assess vulnerability to climate variability and climate change in Tijuana, Mexico. Despite chronic flooding problems throughout the history of the city, local authorities and state authorities have given little attention to vulnerability to climate variability and climate change. This is the first assessment of vulnerability to flooding carried out in Tijuana. Research results show that over 10 percent of the total population in the city (over 153,000 inhabitants) lives in areas with high vulnerability to flooding, and an additional 18 percent (277,000 inhabitants) are in areas with what we classify as medium-high vulnerability. Results by census track identified specific areas and social groups in these categories, as well as the underlying drivers of vulnerability associated with the biophysical conditions of the landscape that have been modified by urban growth and through social processes (namely, deficiencies in local urban planning and its enforcement along with deficient social policies). Information and knowledge of vulnerability is a useful first step in the long process of creating climate adaptation and resilient pathways within the context of sustainable urban development.