Climate change scenarios for northern Europe from multi-model IPCC AR4 climate simulations

Abstract

An empirical-statistical downscaling analysis for monthly mean temperature and precipitation is presented for a multi-model ensemble of the most recent climate scenarios (Special Report Emission Scenario A1b) produced for the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4). The analysis involves a model evaluation by incorporating common EOF analysis, where the degree of similarity between the spatial structure of large-scale anomalies in re-analysis products and the climate models is examined. The empirical-statistical downscaling incorporates local information for a given set of locations, however, additional geographical information is utilised in the spatial interpolation of the results. A best-estimate of trend is derived through a Bayesian approach. Thus, maps of multi-model mean scenarios for annual mean temperature and precipitation rates for the 21st century are obtained. Positive trends are found in both temperature and precipitation over northern Europe. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.