Show do trilhão no RGPS? Quantificando os aspectos fiscais e distributivos da reforma da previdência do governo Bolsonaro*

Abstract

This paper calculates the fiscal and distributive impacts in the RGPS, originated by the PEC 6/2019, the pension reform of the Bolsonaro government. This is done by employing a microsimulation model that calculates contributions, old-age and survivors’ benefits over a period of 30 years. The adoption of the PEC would reduce expenses from R$ 13.42 trillion to R$ 10.59 trillion in the three decades analyzed. Net pension liabilities would fall from R$ 5.99 trillion to R$ 3.43 trillion. The Replacement Rates would drop from 73.99% to 67.65%. The Required Contribution Rates would reduce from 42.70% to 32.87%. The Internal Rates of Return would have a reduction of 2.37% to -1.00%. The Average Pension Duration would fall from 19.45 to 16.46 years.