Statistics and Slobodan: Using Data Analysis and Statistics in the War Crimes Trial of Former President Milosevic

Abstract

CHANCE ISSN: 0933-2480 (Print) 1867-2280 (Online) Journal homepage: http://amstat.tandfonline.com/loi/ucha20 Statisticians recount experiences and share results from investigating the alleged war crimes of Siobodan Milosevic Significant positive evidence for the first two questions would support a posi-tion (favorable to the defense) that the government of Yugoslavia was not Wanted poster for Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and Bosnian Serb leaders Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic released by the State Department Thursday, March 2, 2000. The State Department announced a reward of upto $5 mil-lion for information leading to thearrest and con-viction of the men indicted by an international tribunal.) combined their spe-cialties in data management, sta-tistics, data matching and international relations in order to answer the following questions: 1. Did action by the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) motivate Kosovar Albanians to leave their homes and result (directlyor indi-rectly) in Albanians' deaths? 2. Did air attacks by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) create local conditions that led to Kosovar Albanians being killed and leaving their homes? 3. Did a systematic campaign by Yugoslav forces lead to Kosovar Alban-ian deaths and expel KosovarAlbanians from their homes? Patrick Ball and lana Asher Today in The Hague, history is being made: for the first time in over fiftyyears, a state leader is on trial for crimes against humanity. Former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has been indicted for orchestrating atrocities in Croatia, Bosnia, and Kosovo between 1991 and 1999. The current trial is for war crimes allegedlycommitted in Kosovo; it will be followed by trials of allegations of crimes in Croatia and Bosnia. On the Kosovo portion of the trial alone, the judges' decision will be based on the testimony of more than one hundred eyewitnesses, diplomats, military experts, and scien-tists. The International Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) is trying the case and will make a decision that includes a finding of fact on dozens of questions. As statisticians, the question we addressed in the trial is this: were the forced migration and deaths of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo between March and June of 1999 the result of a sys-tematic Yugoslav government campaign? The first author of this article gave testimony over two days, March 13-14, 2002. The testimony was based on a detailed statistical study of the pattern of deaths and migration in relation to the Statistics and Siobodan: