Oil spill in the St. Lawrence Estuary: a preliminary approach to a risk estimation model.

Abstract

The risk index attempts to describe the short-term behavior of an oil spill and evaluate the nature and the significance of its effects on the ecosystem. The risk level, defined as the chance of damage to the ecosystem integrity, is given by the rate of the risk index variation as a function of the elapsed time after the accidental spill. According to this approach, the risk level is high when the spreading of the oil slick is fast and the shoreline is close to the spill site, but the level is minimum for a spill occurring far from sensitive beaches under dead calm conditions.-from Author