Intertemporal Analysis of Child Mistreatment in Colombia

Abstract

The area of social pediatrics and public health deals with the child and adolescent, healthy and sick, in their individual interactions and with the community in the physical and human environment in which it develops. This research analyzes the behavior of child maltreatment in Colombia during the years 2013 to 2018 in order to propose statistical models that explain it and make reliable predictions of great utility as a basis for the state's health plans. The work is developed from the databases of the National Institute of Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences, the Child Welfare Observatory of the Colombian Family Welfare Institute and the Integral Information System, for the variables: intrafamily violence, interpersonal violence and sexual crimes, disaggregated by age cohorts from 0 to 4, 5 to 9, 10 to 14 and 15 to 17 years. The corresponding ARIMA model is estimated in each case.