Change-point analysis of precipitation and drought extremes in china over the past 50 years

Abstract

Increases in climate extremes and their impacts have attracted global attention recently. In this study, the change-point years of precipitation extremes (PEs) and drought extremes (DEs) were investigated by Moving t-Test at 500 stations across the six regions in China. The detailed temporal change processes of them were demonstrated by the cumulative deviation method based on the data from nine typical stations. The results showed that: 1) DEs were more significantly and widely increased than PEs, the stations with increasing trends of PEs and DEs accounted for greater than 52.6% and 61.6% of the total, respectively; 2) increasing trends of DEs were mainly distributed in the east of Hu Huanyong Line. In this area, the increasing change-point years of DEs often occurred in the early 1980s in the south of the Yangzi River, while occurred in the 1990s in the north of the Yangzi River; 3) increasing trends of PEs were mainly distributed in Qing-Tibet Platen, Northwest China, and the southeastern area of Hu Huanyong Line. In these areas, the increasing change-point years of PEs often occurred around 1990 in the southeast of Hu Huanyong Line, while often occurred in the early 1980s in Qing-Tibet Platen. The results indicated that the area in the southeast of Hu Huanyong Line was under the threats of both PEs and DEs, this may produce severe impacts on agriculture, environment, water resources management, human society, etc.