Evaluating the economic effects of the Ebola virus disease in Liberia: A synthetic control approach

Abstract

We use the synthetic control method to isolate the impact of the 2014–2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic on the Liberian economy. We find a slight initial decline in the unemployment rate, followed by an increase of roughly 1% (p-value ≤5%). The effect on inflation is more substantial (close to a 7% and 18% increase 4 and 5years after the outbreak) but statistically insignificant in the preceding period (2014–2016). We do not identify any other significant income and welfare effects. Synthetic control evidence for Guinea and Sierra Leone suggest even more limited long-term impacts.