3-D Modeling of Induced Seismicity Along Multiple Faults: Magnitude, Rate, and Location in a Poroelasticity System

Abstract

Understanding of the potential to injection-induced seismicity along faults requires the response of fault zone system to spatiotemporal perturbations in pore pressure and stress. In this study, three-dimensional (3-D) model system consisting of the caprock, reservoir, and basement is intersected by vertical strike-slip faults. We examine the full poroelastic behavior of the formation and perform the mechanical analysis along each fault zone using the Coulomb stress change. The magnitude, rate, and location of potential earthquakes are predicted using the spatial distribution of stresses and pore pressure over time. Rapid diffusion of pore pressure into conductive faults initiates failure, but the majority of induced seismicity occurs at deep fault zones due to poroelastic stabilization near the injection interval. Less permeable faults can be destabilized by either delayed pore pressure diffusion or poroelastic stressing. A two-dimensional (2-D) horizontal model, representing the interface between the reservoir and the basement, limits diffusion of pore pressure and deformation of the formation in the vertical direction that may overestimate or underestimate the potential of earthquakes along the fault. Our numerical results suggest that the 3-D modeling of faulting system including poroelastic coupling can reduce the uncertainty in the seismic hazard prediction by considering the hydraulic and mechanical interaction between faults and bounding formations.