Energy planning decision-making under uncertainty based on the evidential reasoning approach

Abstract

In the last two decades, energy planning decision-making (EPDM), especially the evaluation and prioritization of renewable energy sources (RES), has attracted significant attention. The decision-making process is aligned with several sources that can be uncertain, including incomplete information, limited domain knowledge from decision-makers, and failures to provide accurate judgments from experts. In this study, the Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach is developed to manage the expanding complexities and uncertainties in assessment problems. The ER approach is employed as a multiple criteria framework to assess the appropriateness regarding the use of different renewable energy technologies. A case study is provided to illustrate the implementation process. Results show that using the ER approach when assessing the sustainability of different RES under uncertainty allows providing robust decisions, which brings out a more accurate, effective, and better-informed EPDM tool to conduct the evaluation process.