Do the electricity price shocks influence the Sectoral Production and KSE100 Index in Pakistan? An ARDL structural breaks approach

Abstract

This research investigates the long-term cointegration of electricity price with sectoral production and equity market in Pakistan. Fourteen major industrial sectors and the KSE100 index is taken into consideration to determine the relationship. Literature in this regard is available but this research is distinct from previous literature for it tests the sectoral production and equity market relationship with electricity price change in Pakistan. Monthly data from 1st Jan 2011 till 31st Dec 2019 is taken for fourteen sectors from the sources of Quantum Index Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and for KSE100 index from (www.investing.com). An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and bound test for multiple structural breaks has been applied. It is found that almost the production of all industrial sectors and KSE100 index stock prices are adversely affected by the electricity price shocks both in long-term and short-term. The study suggests that management should implement a moderate monitory policy that is neither more expansionary nor contractionary. The government should provide incentives to those who successfully control energy wastage. A mixed kind of energy policy is recommended with higher weightage to the development of renewable energies to reduce foreign exchange outflow with imported furnace oil. This study is limited to the sectoral production and equity market of Pakistan. A cross-sectional research is encouraged to compare the connection between major energy costs and macroeconomic variables in different countries.