Use of Ceres-wheat model for wheat yield forecast in Beijing

Abstract

The CERES-Wheat model was applied to simulate yields from 2005 to 2007 at Xiaotangshan of northern Beijing. Experiment datum required by CERESWheat model were all collected and checked. In addition, 1974-2004 climate records were taken and calculated as predictive weather scenario used for yield forecasting. The model calibration adopted simulation results of 2005 and which of the other two years were used for validation. Model calibration was made through comparing the field-observed and model-simulated results at five stages: (i) dates of anthesis and maturity; (ii) values of LAI; (iii) biomass yields of anthesis and maturity; (iv) dry matter of leaf, stem, and grain; (v) final wheat yield. This study revealed that CERES-Wheat model can be used for the prediction of wheat growth and yield in Beijing.