Impact of modeling uncertainty on seismic life-cycle cost analysis of RC building under mainshock-aftershock sequences

Abstract

Aftershocks can increase financial losses by causing further damage to buildings whose seismic capacity is already impaired in mainshock. To anticipate such losses, seismic life cycle cost analysis under mainshock-aftershock sequences is gaining interest from decision-makers in the past decade. Although, the state-of-the-art framework for aftershock loss assessment accounts for the uncertainty in state of the structure due to damage accumulation, timedependent nature of seismic hazard and variability in the ground motion characteristics, one of the major uncertainties associated with variability in analytical building modeling parameters called “modeling” uncertainty is not accounted in the existing framework. Therefore, this study proposes a framework to assess the variability of expected seismic life cycle cost mainshockaftershock sequences considering modeling uncertainty. Application of the framework is demonstrated using a case study example of four-story modern ductile reinforced concrete (RC) building and results reveal the criticality of considering the modeling uncertainty.