Respecting and circumventing presidential term limits in sub-Saharan Africa: A comparative survey

Abstract

This article offers a survey of political dynamics surrounding the issue of presidential term limits in a large sample of Sub-Saharan African countries over a long period of time. It examines empirically how political regimes have dealt with this issue by observing or circumventing limits, and it links these developments with the democratic quality in the countries at the time they occurred. Beyond legal texts, this study examines the empirical reality of term limits. It finds that effective term limits are less prevalent in practice than in constitutional texts. This is followed by an analysis of the incumbency bias, showing that incumbents who run often win at the election, but that transfers of power are more frequent in the absence of an incumbent. The article then considers the cost-benefit analyses leaders engage in when deciding to stay or to go, as well as the risks of overstaying. Domestic protest and international pressure generally have a limited impact on this choice. The article finally makes clear that political paths across Africa are very divergent, a feature also seen in the longevity of presidents.