Framework for modeling the uncertainty of future events in life cycle assessment

Abstract

One limitation of Life Cycle Assessment is that it relies on the expectation of what will happen to a product as predicted at the point of creation. However, changes in technology, the economy, and end-of-life treatment practices may alter future emissions. This paper describes a study done to develop a model to improve the accuracy of estimated emissions by incorporating uncertainty into the expected impacts of a product by considering events that alter the phases that have not occurred. A case study using this model on a laptop shows use phase GHG emissions reduced by up to 55% in one scenario.