Geriatric scores can predict long-term survival rate after hip fracture surgery

Abstract

Background: The management of hip fractures is nowadays mainly performed in Orthogeriatric Units, one of whose fundamental tools is the application of geriatric scores. The purpose of this study is to establish the potential usefulness of Barthel Index, Katz Index, Lawton-Brody Index and Physical Red Cross Scale geriatric scores as predictors of survival rate and readmission rate in older patients after hip fracture surgery. Methods: We designed a prospective single-center observational study, including 207 older adults over age 65 who underwent hip fracture surgery in the first half of 2014 and followed up to September 2018. Cumulative survival and readmission rates were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier; group comparison, by Log-Rank and hazard ratio, by Cox regression. Results: We found statistical differences (p < 0.001) for cumulative survival rate by every geriatric score analyzed (BI HR = 0.98 [0.97,0.99]; KI HR = 1.24 [1.13-1.37]; LBI HR = 1.25 [1.16, 1.36]; PCRS HR = 1.67 [1.37,2.04]). Furthermore, we could determinate an inflection point for survival estimation by Barthel Index (BI 0-55/60-100∗, p < 0.001, HR = 2.37 [1.59,3.53]), Katz Index (KI A-B∗/C-G, p < 0.001, HR = 2.66 [1.80, 3.93], and Lawton-Brody Index (LBI 0-3/4-8∗, p < 0.001, HR = 3.40 [2.09,5.25]). We reveal a correlation of the Charlson Index (p = 0.002) and Katz Index (p = 0.041) with number of readmissions for the study period. Conclusions: The geriatric scores analyzed are related to the cumulative survival rate after hip fracture surgery for more than 4 years, independently of other clinical and demographic factors. Katz Index in combination with Charlson Index could also be a potential predictor of the number of readmissions after surgery for hip fracture patients.