Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture Water Management: Application of an Integrated Hydrological-Economic Modelling Tool in a Semi-Arid Region

Abstract

An integrated hydrological-economic modelling tool—applied to the Apulia region (southern Italy)—is proposed to define water balance components and water use in the agricultural sector. The hydrological model allows assessing the crop irrigation requirements and the water availability, expressed in terms of river flow, groundwater recharge and abstraction, while the integration with the economic model allows simulating the real farmers' decision process in response to any changes both in the constraints and in the boundary conditions. The tool provides a comprehensive information framework including water balance com-ponents, crop irrigation requirements, farmers' choices in terms of land use and irrigation techniques, economic results (costs and incomes), and environmental impacts. Climate, land cover and soil datasets have been implemented as thematic maps into a GIS-based model, and integrated with the main economic parameters at the farm and crop level. Future scenarios of climate change have been simulated and their impacts on water balance taken into account. The aim of the results is optimizing the use of water resources and addressing the policies for an efficient water management under severe drought conditions that are likely to occur in the region according to climate change projections.