Climate Change, Variability and Rainfall Probability for Crop Planning in Few Districts of Central India

Abstract

Trend and climate change were studied in annual rainfall data for the period of 62 years (1949- 2010) of Sagar and 65 years (1945-2010) of Damoh districts of Bundelkhand region of central India. The analysis of weekly rainfall probability was also carried out at both the locations for field operations and crop planning in rainfed agricultural system for improving the farmer’s livelihood. Mean annual rainfall was 1233.8 mm with 32.6% variability for Sagar and 1225.1 mm with 30.3% variability for Damoh region. Sagar and Damoh region exhibited significant decreasing trend in the total amount of annual rainfall in the last 15 years (1996 to 2010). Also, both locations showed significant long-term decreasing trend in annual rainfall. Climate of both the regions have changed as in the recent 15 years annual rainfall had decreased by 156.4 and 310.7 mm at Sagar and Damoh from their long period average (LPA), respectively. The Initial and conditional rainfall probability analysis at Damoh reinforced that Initial probabilities {P (W)} of getting 10 mm rainfall per week was 76% during 25th (18-24 June) SMW. Thus, the seed bed preparation could be initiated during this week. Initial as well as conditional probability of wet week followed by wet week {P(W/W} of getting 20 mm rainfall was more than 80% during 27th SMW (2-7 July) in Sagar district. Therefore, this week is most suitable for sowing operation in this district.