Respuesta hidrológica del Pirineo central al cambio ambiental proyectado para el siglo XXI

Abstract

Streamflows in five Mediterranean mountain headwaters in the central Spanish Pyrenees were projected under various climate and land use change scenarios. Streamflows were simulated using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys). The results show that changes in precipitation and temperature could cause a decline of annual streamflow between 13% and 23%, depending on the considered catchment. When the effect of increased forest cover in the basins is added to climate change effects, the decrease in annual streamflow is enhanced up to 19% and 32%. The largest hydrological changes resulting from environmental change are projected mainly in early spring, summer and autumn, when the decline may exceed 40%. Winter is the least affected season by environmental change because of increased runoff as a consequence of reduced storage of water in the snowpack and an earlier onset of the snowmelt, and the lower consumption of water by vegetation during the cold season. The magnitude of hydrological change as a result of the assumed environmental change scenarios may lead to serious impacts on water management and ecology of the studied region, as well as the water availability in the Ebro basin.