Present and potential nitrogen outputs from Norwegian soft water lakes - An assessment made by applying the steady-state First-order Acidity Balance (FAB) model

Abstract

The steady-state First-order Acidity Balance (FAB) model for calculating critical loads of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) is applied to 609 Norwegian soft-water lakes to assess the future nitrate (NO3-) leaching potential under present (1992-96) S and N deposition. The lakes were separated into five groups receiving increasing levels of N deposition (<25, 25-49, 50-74, 75-99 and 100-125 meq m-2 yr-1). Using long-term sustainable N sink rates presently recommended for FAB model applications, N immobilisation, net N uptake in forests, denitrification and in-lake N retention were estimated for each group of lakes. Altogether, the long-term N sinks constituted 9.9±3.2 to 40.5±11.4 meq m-2 yr-1 in the lowest and highest N deposition categories, respectively. At most sites, the current N deposition exceeds the amount of N retained by long-term sustainable N sinks plus the NO3- loss via the lake outlets. This excess N, which is currently retained within the catchments may, according to the FAB model, leach as acidifying NO3- in the future. If these predictions are fulfilled, NO3- leaching at sites in the various N deposition categories will increase dramatically from present (1995) mean levels of 1-20 meq m-2 yr-1, to mean levels of 7-70 meq m-2 yr-1 at future steady state. To illustrate the significance of such an increase in NO3- leaching, the mean Acid Neutralising Capacity (ANC) at sites in the highest N deposition category may decrease from -18±15 μeq L-1 at present, to -40±20 μeq L-1. Under present S and N deposition levels, the FAB model predicts that 46% of the Norwegian lakes may experience exceedances of critical loads for acidifying deposition. In comparison, the Steady-State Water Chemistry model (SSWC), which considers only the present N leaching level, estimates critical load exceedances in 37% of the lakes under the same deposition level. Thus far, there are great uncertainties regarding both the time scales and the extent of future N leaching, and it is largely unknown whether the FAB model predictions will ever be fulfilled. Hence, long-term monitoring and further studies on N immobilisation processes under varying N deposition levels and ecosystem types seem necessary to make better predictions of future NO3- leaching.