Changing characteristics of extreme wet and dry spells of Indian monsoon rainfall

Abstract

Modeling of extreme events and its dynamic behavior have always been an intriguing topic. Increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events has widely been reported in recent decades, which is attributed to abrupt changes in climate. Numerous studies on extreme Indian monsoon characteristics, using a coarse-resolution data set, have pointed out significant changes in heavy precipitation pattern over India. However, these studies differ in their conclusions, emphasizing the need for a fine-resolution analysis. The present study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal variations and trends in the extreme (wet and dry) Indian monsoon precipitation, using 0.25° × 0.25° high-resolution gridded data for a period of 113 years (1901–2013). Significant increase in the maximum intensity of rainfall and spatial heterogeneity is observed over the past half century. In addition, significant negative trends in wet spell durations and positive trends in dry spell durations are observed over wet regions; whereas contrasting trends are observed over dry regions. A shift in the frequency distribution of extreme events during the monsoon period is also noticed. The 50 year return level of maximum intensity clearly shows positive trends over the past century. Though characteristics of extremes are observed to be highly localized, apparent signs of wet regions turning drier and dry regions turning wetter are obtained. A comprehensive insight into different characteristics (intensity, spell, onset, and frequency) of Indian monsoon extremes is provided, which will help in effective water resources management and flood/drought hazard preparedness.