Safety Risk Assessment of Air Traffic Control System Based on the Game Theory and the Cloud Matter Element Analysis

Abstract

With the ever-increasing demand for air traffic over the years, safety risk assessment has become significant in maintaining the operational safety of the air transport system for long-term development towards sustainability. This paper conducts a safety risk assessment of the air traffic control (ATC) system based on game theory and cloud matter element analysis. The safety risk of the ATC system is evaluated from four aspects, including human, machine, environment, and man-agement. The Nash equilibrium is introduced from game theory to weigh the indicators. The cloud matter element assessment adopts the cloud model from fuzzy sets and probability theory to replace the certain value in conventional matter element theory, which takes the randomness, ambiguity, and incompatibility of the indicators into consideration. In this sense, the safety risk level of the ATC system can be evaluated by calculating the correlation degree of the standard cloud matter element between the indicators and the risks. This paper expands the research scope by introducing and combing game theory and cloud matter element analysis. Furthermore, the applicability and the robustness of the method are examined with a case study of the ATC system, which enriches the existing literature and points out the direction for future work.