Development and validation of a noninvasive prediction model for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis resolution after lifestyle intervention

Abstract

Liver biopsy is the gold standard method to assess nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) resolution after therapeutic interventions. We developed and validated a simple and noninvasive scoring system to predict NASH resolution without fibrosis worsening after 1 year of lifestyle intervention. This was a prospective cohort study conducted in 261 patients with histologically proven NASH who were treated with lifestyle changes for 52 weeks and underwent a second liver biopsy to confirm NASH resolution. We divided the data into development (140 subjects) and validation (121 individuals) sets. NASH resolution occurred in 28% (derivation group) and 27% (validation group). At the multivariable analysis, weight loss (odds ratio [OR] = 2.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.65-4.58; P < 0.01), type 2 diabetes (OR = 0.04, 95% CI 0.005-0.49; P = 0.01), normal levels of alanine aminotransferase at the end of intervention (OR = 9.84, 95% CI 2.21-44.1; P < 0.01), age (OR = 0.89, 95% CI 0.83-0.97; P = 0.01), and a nonalcoholic fatty liver activity score ≥5 (OR = 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.43; P < 0.01) were independent predictors of NASH resolution. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the selected model was 0.956 and 0.945 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Using a score threshold of ≤46.15, negative predictive values were 92% in the derivation and validation groups, respectively. By applying a cutoff ≥69.72, positive predictive values were 92% and 89% in the derivation and validation groups, respectively. Using both cutoffs, a liver biopsy would have been avoided in 229 (88%) of 261 patients, with a correct prediction in 209 (91%) Conclusions: A noninvasive prediction model including weight loss, type 2 diabetes, alanine aminotransferase normalization, age, and a nonalcoholic fatty liver activity score ≥5 may be useful to identify NASH resolution in patients under lifestyle intervention. (Hepatology 2016;63:1875-1887).