Provincial public expenditure in China: a tale of pro-cyclicality

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Abstract

This paper examines the cyclicality of provincial expenditure in China during the period 1978–2013. Using panel data for analysis, it assesses whether provincial expenditure has been pro-cyclical. Pro-cyclicality is found to be a regular feature of provincial fiscal policy. This pro-cyclicality occurs both in times of low and high growth rates and has markedly intensified since 1994 with the increased autonomy of provinces. The paper further finds that the pro-cyclicality bias is mitigated when financial constraints are relaxed, the remaining political life of the governor is long, government efficiency is strong, corruption incidence is low, and governments are large.

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Combes, J. L., Renard, M. F., & Tapsoba, S. J. A. (2019). Provincial public expenditure in China: a tale of pro-cyclicality. Economic Change and Restructuring, 52(1), 19–41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-017-9215-4

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