Exploring Applications of Storm-Scale Probabilistic Warn-on-Forecast Guidance in Weather Forecasting

Abstract

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service is responsible for issuing watches, warnings, and other forecast products related to hazardous weather. These products are intended to reach end users including government organizations, the media, emergency managers, and the public, such that decisions can be made to protect life, property, and the national economy. However, discontinuities currently exist in the guidance available to forecasters and in the products that are issued. Therefore, the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast program is developing and testing a convection-allowing ensemble analysis and prediction system. This system provides 0–6 h probabilistic forecast guidance for individual thunderstorms between the Watch and Warning timeframe. In addition to focusing research efforts on the development and testing of the Warn-on-Forecast system, a group of scientists are working closely with the weather forecasting community to establish ways in which Warn-on-Forecast guidance can be most useful during real-time operations. Two primary research questions being explored are: (1) How do meteorologists perceive, interpret, and understand Warn-on-Forecast guidance? (2) How can Warn-on-Forecast guidance be applied in the operational environment to enhance the forecast process? Research undertaken to address these two questions will be discussed.