Forecasting the Monthly Reported Cases of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) at Minna Niger State, Nigeria

Abstract

There has been a moderate increase in newly diagnosed HIV-infected Minna populace, which calls for serious attention. This study used time series data based on monthly HIV cases from January 2007 to December 2018 taken from the statistical data document on HIV prevalence recorded in General Hospital Minna, Niger State. The methodology employed to analyze the data is based on mathematical models of ARMA, ARIMA and SARIMA which were computed and diagnosed. From the results of parameter estimation of the models, ARMA(2, 1) model was the best model among the other ARMA models using information criteria (AIC). Diagnostic test was run on the ARMA(2, 1) model where the results show that the model was adequate and normally distributed using Box-Lung test and Q-Q plot respectively. Furthermore, ARIMA of first and second differences was estimated and ARIMA(1, 0, 1) was the best model from the result of the AIC and diagnostic test carried out which revealed that the model was adequate and normally distributed using Box-Lung and Q-Q plot respectively. Furthermore, the results obtained in the ARMA and ARIMA models were used to arrive at a combined model given as ARIMA(1, 0, 1) × SARIMA(1, 0, 1)12 which was subsequently estimated and found to be adequate from the result of the Box-Lung and Q-Q plot respectively. Post forecasting estimation and performance evolution were evaluated using the RMSE and MAE. The results showed that, ARIMA(1, 0, 1) × SARIMA(1, 0, 1)12 is the best forecasting model followed by ARIMA(1, 0, 2) on monthly HIV prevalence in Minna, Niger state.