Changing Belarus

Abstract

Belarus’s president, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, has been in power for 27 years. This introductory essay provides an overview of his time in power and particularly the manipulation of elections and control of the process, including election results. Also discussed are the reasons for the longevity of the only president of Belarus to date: a relatively stable economy, close links with Russia, a “social contract” with the population, and lack of unity within the opposition. The article traces the unravelling of the regime as a result of failure to respond to Covid, a divide within the ruling elite, and mass popular support for the campaign of the unexpected presidential candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaia. The regime, however, has remained in place largely through mass repressions and the backing of Russia, while the West has cut off relations and applied political and economic sanctions. Though the country appears to be at an impasse, public perceptions have changed, and Lukashenka’s future as leader appears limited.