FUTURE EFFECTIVENESS OF PASSIVE HOUSE DESIGN STRATEGIES

Abstract

Passive architectural design strategies have been an effective response to the energy crisis of the 20th century. In temperate climates, their integration results in thermal behaviors that combine indoor comfort and energy efficiency. However, projected future climate change scenarios will not offer the same performances, resulting in such strategies being less effective. The objective of this work is to quantify the relative change in the effectiveness of passive design strategies in dwellings for arid temperate-cold climates (Bwk), taking the city of Mendoza (Argentina) as an example. Regarding future climate projections for warm arid climates (Bwh), using the CMIP5’s RCP8.5 scenario, equivalent to the IPCC’s CMIP6 SSP85 scenario, the results show a 20% decrease in the number of hours in annual comfort, with a 24% increase in the need for passive summer strategies.