Dynamic analysis of the property market in the city of avellino (Italy): The wheaton-di pasquale model applied to the residential segment

Abstract

The dynamics of the housing market have been the subject of study and modelling for several decades (including: Muth, 1963; Ozanne, Thibodeau, 1983; Stiglitz, 1993; Green, Malpezzi and Mayo, 2005). The contingent relationships between the property market and micro and macroeconomic situations are particularly interesting. Studies were carried out by Di Pasquale and Wheaton (1996), with reference to the office property market and the correlation with the construction industry. The model has been adopted in this study, but applied to the residential property market in a medium size city located in southern Italy. The aim includes both the reading of the historical past ten years, with a dynamic approach to the problem, as well as a predictive application of the model for the near future (2013-2015). © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.