Relationship between temperatures and fault slips on the upper surface of the subducting Philippine Sea plate beneath the Kanto district, central Japan

Abstract

To elucidate the relationship between interplate temperatures and generation mechanisms for megathrust earthquakes and slow slip events (SSEs) in the Kanto district, central Japan, we performed numerical simulations on the thermal state. For this purpose, we newly developed a 2-D box-type thermal convection model that is able to handle the subduction of two oceanic plates: the young oceanic Philippine Sea (PHS) plate subducts following subduction of the old oceanic Pacific (PAC) plate beneath it. To constrain temperatures on the upper surface of the PHS plate, we used high-density Hi-net heat flow data on land. We found that low heat flow in the Kanto district was caused mostly by subduction of the cold PHS plate. To explain the heat flow distribution in the Kanto district in more detail, we needed to incorporate frictional heating at the plate interface on the seaward side of the corner of the mantle wedge, and temperature changes due to surface erosion and sedimentation associated with crustal deformation during the Quaternary on land into the models. The most suitable pore pressure ratio to explain the heat flow data was 0.98. The thermally estimated seismogenic zone corresponded well to the fault planes of the 1923 Taisho Kanto earthquake and the western half of the 1707 Genroku Kanto earthquake. The eastern half of the fault plane of the 1707 Genroku Kanto earthquake could be divided into two areas; the northwestern fault plane corresponded to the thermally estimated seismogenic zone, whereas the relationship between the southeastern fault plane and interplate temperatures was ambiguous. The off-Boso SSEs occurred on the plate interface at temperatures lower than approximately 250 °C, and the slipped region passed through the 150 °C isotherm, corresponding to the clay mineral phase transformation from smectite to illite. This might suggest that the SSEs occurred in relation to a dehydration process.