Anthropogenic influence of temperature changes across East Asia using CMIP6 simulations

Abstract

The present study explores the impact of anthropogenic forcings (ANT) on surface air temperatures (SATs) across East Asia (EA) over a long period (1850–2014) using the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets. Based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble simulations, the historical simulations (twentieth century) and future (twenty-first century) SAT projections were investigated. Our calculations show that during 1850–2014, the combination of ANT and natural (NAT) (‘ALL = ANT + NAT’) forcings increased the EA’s SAT by 0.031 °C/decade, while a high increase of 0.08 °C/decade due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The ANT forcing rapidly increased after 1969. As a result, SAT change was enhanced at a rate of 0.268 °C/decade and 0.255 °C/decade due to GHG and ALL forcings, respectively. Human-induced GHG emissions were the dominant factors driving SAT warming and will also contribute to substantial future warming trends. Additionally, the optimal fingerprinting method was used to signify the influence of ANT forcing on climate change in EA. In a two-signal analysis, the ANT forcing was distinctly detected and detached from NAT forcing. In three-signal analyses, GHG forcing was dominant and separated from AER and NAT forcings. The future projections from 2015 to 2100 were examined based on CMIP6 socioeconomic pathway emission scenarios.