Analysing the Turkey-Africa Relationship’s Impact on the flow of Turkey’s Exports

Abstract

While there are scholars who have analysed factors that influence Turkey's bilateral exports, very few have examined the impact of cooperation/conflicts on Turkey's trade in general and with particular reference to Africa. In view of the above, this paper seeks to analyse and estimate the effect on exports from Turkey to 52 African countries of Turkey's relationship with the Africa Union for the period 1998-2015. Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) results suggest that Turkey's cooperation with Africa (TAR) is positive and statistically significant in inducing exports from Turkey to 52 selected African countries. Specifically, TAR increases Turkey's exports to selected African countries by 44.5%. Alternatively, due to TAR Turkey's exports to Africa are predicted to be 1.44 times higher than in the absence of cooperation. However, there is evidence that TAR's impact on exports vary across regions. Compared to countries in the Northern part of Africa, the effect of TAR with African countries in the East, South, and West is negative and statistically significant. Given these results, it is therefore prudent for Turkey to target countries or regional trading blocs in where export deficiency has been diagnosed so that more exports can be stimulated.