Future career intentions of recent GP graduates in Ireland: A trend analysis study

Abstract

Background: A lack of manpower and negative health statistics have increased the workload for Irish GPs. Consequently, recent GP graduates are considering emigration or part-time employment. Aim: To report on trends of the current status and future work intentions of recent GP graduates in Ireland. Design & setting: Quantitative study based on online surveys in the Irish setting. Method: A 'career intentions' survey was emailed to all recent GP graduates in Ireland, in 2014, 2015, and 2017. The data presented includes GPs who graduated in the previous 4 years at each survey time point. The average response rate across the three surveys was 38.2%. Results: The number of graduates who had already emigrated increased over the survey years, accounted for 16.9% in 2014, 17.4% in 2015, and 19.2% in 2017 survey. The majority of doctors who emigrated did so in the first 2 years after graduation (74.7%). 'Quality of life' became the most frequent reason for emigration over the survey years, accounting for 32.0% in the 2017 survey. In the 2014 survey, 47.3% of graduates stated that they intend to work part-time in 5 years; this rose to 51.2% in 2015, reaching 60.0% in 2017. Female participants were more than twice as likely to plan to work part time in 5 years compared to their male colleagues, across all three surveys. Conclusion: The first and second years after graduation were the most critical for emigration. Interventions in this period may reduce the 'brain drain' of Irish GPs. Part-time working is becoming more attractive and should be considered in future workforce planning.