Paris INDCs

Abstract

This chapter begins with a description of the Paris Climate Agreement, which was formulated during the 21st meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in late 2015. The goal of this agreement is to limit future emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such that global warming will not exceed 1.5 °C (target) or 2.0 °C (upper limit). Future emissions of GHGs are based on unilateral pledges submitted by UNFCCC member nations, called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). We compare the global emission of GHGs calculated from the INDCs to the emissions that had been used to formulate the various Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) trajectories for future atmospheric abundance of GHGs. The RCP 4.5 scenario is particularly important, because our Empirical Model of Global Climate (EM-GC) indicates there is a reasonably good probability (~75 %) the Paris target will be achieved, and an excellent probability (>95 %) the upper limit for global warming will be attained, if the future atmospheric abundance of GHGs follows RCP 4.5. Our analysis of the Paris INDCs shows GHG emissions could remain below RCP 4.5 out to year 2060 if: (1) conditional as well as unconditional INDCs are followed; (2) reductions in GHG emissions needed to achieve the Paris INDC commitments, which generally stop at 2030, are propagated forward to 2060. Prior and future emissions of GHGs are graphically illustrated to provide context for the reductions needed to place global GHG emissions on the RCP 4.5 trajectory.