The Evolution of Deterrence: Theory and Policy since 1945

Abstract

Gray identifies three periods in the development of Western nuclear strategy-the First Wave, the Golden Age, and the Third Wave-and these provide a useful framework within which to organize a description of how deterrence theory and policy have evolved since the opening of the nuclear age in 1945 (Gray, 1982a, pp. 15-17). 11.1 THE FIRST WAVE As several commentators have noted, a handful of British and American strategists writing immediately after the end of the Second World War laid down most of the basic ideas that were later to become the core of Western deterrence theory (Booth, in Baylis et al., 1975, p. 34; Gray, 1982b, ch. 3; Herken, 1984, pp. 15-18. For the detailed intellectual history, see Freedman, 1981). These early writers included