A machine learning model for distinguishing Kawasaki disease from sepsis

Abstract

KD is an acute systemic vasculitis that most commonly affects children under 5 years old. Sepsis is a systemic inflammatory response syndrome caused by infection. The main clinical manifestations of both are fever, and laboratory tests include elevated WBC count, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin. However, the two treatments are very different. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a dynamic nomogram based on clinical data to help clinicians make timely diagnoses and decision-making. In this study, we analyzed 299 KD patients and 309 sepsis patients. We collected patients' age, sex, height, weight, BMI, and 33 biological parameters of a routine blood test. After dividing the patients into a training set and validation set, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method, support vector machine and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to select significant factors and construct the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by discrimination and calibration. The decision curve analysis was used to assess the clinical usefulness of the nomogram. This nomogram shows that height, WBC, monocyte, eosinophil, lymphocyte to monocyte count ratio (LMR), PA, GGT and platelet are independent predictors of the KD diagnostic model. The c-index of the nomogram in the training set and validation is 0.926 and 0.878, which describes good discrimination. The nomogram is well calibrated. The decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram has better clinical application value and decision-making assistance ability. The nomogram has good performance of distinguishing KD from sepsis and is helpful for clinical pediatricians to make early clinical decisions.