Foresight in medicine: Lessons from three European Delphi studies

Abstract

Background: Foresight on future innovations in health care has become a serious matter of politics. Methods: The article analyses three recent technology foresight exercises ('Delphi') which also have implied health care technologies. A secondary analysis of the German and British Delphis provides general trends about innovations in medicine and sociomedical services. The Austrian Delphi focused on highly selected areas. Results: Despite different scopes, a homogenous picture emerges: in the context of demographic changes to come, cancer and dementia research and the development of materials for artificial organs are most relevant. Basic research receives less attention. Technological innovations in telecommunications and diagnostics (sensors) support sociomedical care at home, which will become more prominent. To contain costs, (cost-) effectiveness evaluations of health care technologies will gain importance. Conclusion: The challenge for health policy will not only be to react to technological innovations, but to steer and guide developments in a desirable direction at an early stage. Cooperation and coordination among all actors will become essential.